{"id":2213,"date":"2025-10-08T15:18:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T15:18:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arev.is\/?p=2213"},"modified":"2026-06-26T14:03:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T14:03:17","slug":"mackerel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arev.is\/en\/frettir\/makrill\/","title":{"rendered":"Mackerel"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-makrill-og-fangavandamalid-thegar-ekki-er-unnid-saman-og-audlindum-eytt\">Mackerel and the Prisoner&#x27;s Dilemma: When cooperation fails and resources are wasted<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mackerel stock in the Northeast Atlantic is collapsing. In 2023, the stock had decreased by 42% from 2022. Now, in October 2025, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) is proposing a 70% reduction in catches for 2026 \u2013 down to just 174,000 tonnes. Nevertheless, the actual catch for 2025 is estimated to be 755,000 tonnes, far above the scientific advice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a classic example of <strong>The Prisoner Problem<\/strong> \u2013 a game-theoretic situation that explains why rational actors cannot cooperate, even when cooperation would be in all their best interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-x-large-font-size\" id=\"h-hvad-er-fangavandamalid\">What is the prisoner&#x27;s dilemma?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Imagine two criminals who are arrested and placed in separate rooms for questioning. The police need evidence, so they offer each of them a deal:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If you turn on your partner and he stays silent, you go free and he gets 10 years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If you both accept, you will each get 1 year for a minor offence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If you both tell on each other, you&#x27;ll each get 5 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is that it is always better to cheat, no matter what the other person does. But when both follow this reasoning, they both get 5 years instead of the 1 year they would have got by cooperating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-makrildeilan\">The mackerel dispute<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iceland, Norway, the Faroe Islands, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Greenland are facing exactly this problem:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The collaborative conclusion:<\/strong> Everyone follows ICES&#x27;s scientific advice and divides the catch fairly. The stock recovers and everyone benefits from sustainable fishing in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Reality:<\/strong> Each country sets its own quota based on the share it believes it is entitled to. When all countries act in this way, the total catch far exceeds sustainable levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 2010, unilateral quotas have averaged 40% over scientific advice. The consequence: the stock is now below the precautionary threshold and is heading for collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-af-hverju-virkar-samvinna-ekki\">Why doesn&#x27;t cooperation work?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lack of trust:<\/strong> If Iceland cuts its catches to help the stock, will Norway and the Faroe Islands then catch the same amount? Or will they just take Iceland&#x27;s share?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Short-term incentives:<\/strong> The country that restricts hunting loses revenue NOW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Long-term benefits:<\/strong> Restoring the population takes years and benefits everyone \u2013 including those who betray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Position in negotiations:<\/strong> Iceland is issuing a quota amounting to 16.3 TP3T of the advice to strengthen its negotiating position, although it can be difficult to catch. Norway and the Faroe Islands have increased their quotas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hvert-stefnir-thetta\">Where is this heading?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Without a binding agreement between all coastal states, this is heading for the complete destruction of a shared resource. The mackerel stock is also at risk, but a 41% smaller catch is recommended for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is an example of the tragedy of the commons: rational actors destroy a shared resource because cooperation requires trust that no one can guarantee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The only solution is a binding international agreement that can be enforced. Without it, the prisoner&#x27;s dilemma will continue to force every nation to take more \u2013 until there is nothing left.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Makr\u00edll og fangavandam\u00e1li\u00f0: \u00deegar ekki er unni\u00f0 saman og au\u00f0lindum eytt Makr\u00edlstofninn \u00ed Nor\u00f0austur-Atlantshafi er [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[47,34,12,1,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-alitsgerd","category-samkeppni-2","category-sjavarutvegur","category-uncategorized","category-vidskipti"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.7 (Yoast SEO v28.7) - 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