{"id":2542,"date":"2026-09-07T10:14:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T10:14:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arev.is\/?p=2542"},"modified":"2026-10-20T14:34:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T14:34:39","slug":"wild-salmon-could-disappear-from-smaller-rivers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arev.is\/en\/frettir\/wild-salmon-could-disappear-from-smaller-rivers\/","title":{"rendered":"In a small river, wild salmon may not return even 50 years after open-net-pen farming stops"},"content":{"rendered":"

An IBSEM modelling study by Arev for Hr\u00fatafjar\u00f0ar\u00e1<\/a> in North Iceland shows a considerably more severe outcome than our earlier analysis of Hofs\u00e1 and Sel\u00e1<\/a> in Vopnafj\u00f6r\u00f0ur. The model assumes open-net-pen farming operates \u2014 with fish escaping into the river \u2014 for 50 years, then stops completely; the remaining 50 years of the 100-year simulation track what happens with zero further farming pressure. The result is stark: hybridisation becomes so pervasive, so fast, that genetically pure wild fish effectively disappear from the population within a few years of the last escape \u2014 and do not return for the rest of the simulated century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why population size matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hr\u00fatafjar\u00f0ar\u00e1 supports a comparatively small wild salmon population. Lacking direct water-temperature records for the river, Arev calibrated the model using the monthly average of neighbouring Glj\u00fafur\u00e1 and Vatnsdals\u00e1 over the last five years, and set the river's effective habitat area at 110 km\u00b2 based on independent population estimates for Hr\u00fatafjar\u00f0ar\u00e1 and S\u00edk\u00e1. At that calibration, the model produces a mean spawning population of 400 fish (SD 68), closely matching an independent estimate of 412 (SD 41) \u2014 giving confidence that the model reflects the real population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That small population size turns out to be decisive. The same modelling approach that produced 15\u201330% hybrid shares in the larger Hofs\u00e1 and Sel\u00e1 populations produces far more extensive hybridization in Hr\u00fatafjar\u00f0ar\u00e1: escapees and their offspring make up a much larger share of a population this size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fifty years of farming, then fifty years without it \u2014 still no wild fish<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The model tracks four genetic classes based on the frequency of wild alleles (a): pure wild (a\u22650.95), low introgression (0.75\u2264a<0.95), high introgression (0.05.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Definitions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The model classifies each fish by the frequency of wild alleles it carries (a): pure wild (a\u22650.95), low introgression (0.75\u2264a<0.95), high introgression (0.05.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Key findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Even after 50 years with no further farming, genetically pure wild fish do not return \u2014 the collapse happens fast (within about five years of the last escape) and does not reverse.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Population size is a critical risk multiplier: identical escape numbers have a far greater relative effect on a small population than a large one.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • This is not a mid-farming snapshot: the model runs 50 years of active farming followed by 50 years of zero escapes, so the result reflects the long-run outcome once farming has completely stopped, not a temporary low point.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Even 100 years on, essentially no fish in the population qualifies as genetically pure wild, and the average frequency of wild genes has not returned to its original baseline.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    For river owners and fishing associations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    An analysis like this gives river owners and fishing associations the tools to quantify the risk of genetic introgression specific to their own river \u2014 including how population size shapes that risk \u2014 build evidence for environmental impact assessments and permit proceedings, and compare conservation measures and their long-term effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Wild salmon rivers near open-net pen farming operations, especially smaller ones, may face substantially greater genetic risk than larger neighbouring rivers. Arev can carry out an IBSEM analysis for other rivers. Contact us to learn more or request a quote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    An IBSEM modelling study by Arev for Hr\u00fatafjar\u00f0ar\u00e1 in North Iceland shows a considerably more […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1191,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[112,49,116],"class_list":["post-2542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-alitsgerd","tag-fiskeldi","tag-greinar"],"yoast_head":"\nIn a small river, wild salmon may not return even 50 years after open-net-pen farming stops - 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