Arev's long-term tourism forecast April 2020

2020 summer canceled – 2021 will be challenging – 2022 return to normal

We expect travel restrictions to be in effect during most of the summer of 2020. On this basis we calculate that roughly 800,000 tourists will come to Iceland this year. More than 300,000 have already come, so that the balance of approximately half a million will come in late summer and autumn/winter. In February 2020 the 12-month moving average number of tourists was 2.1 m. Our pessimistic scenario is less than 700,000 tourists for the full year 2020 and the optimistic scenario is 1 m.

We believe the market will recover quickly after 2020 and in our optimistic scenario the number of tourists will reach 1.5 million in 2021. We understand that 2021 will be a challenging year as travelers may be reluctant to venture too far from their own country.

In the optimistic scenario we are forecasting that the number of tourists will be 1.8 m in 2022.

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