Arev's long-term tourist forecast February 2020

The annual average number of tourists is now more than 2.1 m. The forecast assumes that the average will reach 2 m. in the middle of 2020 and in 1.9 m. a year later. Before the corona virus started to spread, Arev assumed that 100 - 120 thousand Chinese would come here in 2020. Arev now plans that at least 30 thousand fewer Chinese will come to the country this year.

In January, 13% fewer tourists arrived than the previous year. At the same time, the annual average decreased by 0.8%. The average is now more than 2.1 m. Arev plans to bring it under 2.0 m. at the beginning of summer and 1.9 m. a year later as the picture shows.

Arev then set up two other scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario (green line), the average will fall to just over 2 m. in the middle of 2021 and then start growing again. According to the pessimistic scenario (yellow line) the average will drop to just over 1.8 m. in mid-2021 before it starts growing again.

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