2020 summer cancelled – 2021 will be challenging – 2022 return to normal
We expect travel restrictions to be in effect for most of the summer of 2020. On this basis, we calculate that roughly 800,000 tourists will visit Iceland this year. More than 300,000 have already arrived, so the remaining approximately half a million will arrive in late summer and autumn/winter. In February 2020 the 12-month moving average number of tourists was 2.1 m. Our pessimistic scenario is fewer than 700,000 tourists for the full year 2020 and the optimistic scenario is 1 m.
We believe the market will recover quickly after 2020 and in our optimistic scenario the number of tourists will reach 1.5 million in 2021. We understand that 2021 will be a challenging year as travellers may be reluctant to venture too far from their own country.
In the optimistic scenario, we are forecasting that the number of tourists will be 1.8 million in 2022.
