Unprecedented short-term drop – long-term forecast left unchanged
At the end of February, the number of tourists who had visited Iceland over the previous 12 months stood at 2.1 million. With the onset of the coronavirus and the subsequent restrictions on movement, the average is set for an unprecedented drop. Based on data on the virus and previous outbreaks of viruses, as well as conversations with more than 12 experts (domestic and foreign), our figures have been sharply revised downwards.
At this point we expect the number of tourists to fall to between 1.3 and 1.4 million for the year 2020. This figure includes the 250,000 tourists who had already arrived in the country by the end of February. Our optimistic forecast is for 1.6 million tourists to arrive in Iceland this year, and our pessimistic forecast is for 1.1 million tourists.
In 2021 we expect at least 1.8 million tourists to arrive in Iceland. Our long-term outlook has not materially changed, although we expect that the years 2020 and 2021 will shift the forecast curve further out.
