The annual average number of tourists is now just over 2.1 million. The forecast predicts that the average will fall to 2 million by mid-2020 and to 1.9 million a year later. Before the coronavirus began to spread, Arev had predicted that 100,000–120,000 Chinese tourists would visit in 2020. Arev now expects at least 30,000 fewer Chinese tourists to visit the country during the year.
In January, 131,000 fewer tourists arrived than the previous year. As a result, the annual average fell by 0.8%. The average is now just over 2.1 m. Arev plans for it to be below 2.0 m. by the start of summer and 1.9 m. a year later, as the graph shows.
Arev then set up two other scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario (the green line), the average will fall to just over 2 m. by mid-2021 and then start to rise again. According to the pessimistic scenario (the yellow line), the average will fall to just over 1.8 m. by mid-2021 before it starts to rise again.