The monthly average of tourist numbers is currently around 2.0 million. The forecast predicts that the average will fall to 1.9 million before tourist numbers begin to increase again.
The right-hand axis of the chart on the left shows that, until mid-2017, the monthly average continued to increase proportionally. In 2017, this began to reverse, and the situation is now such that the monthly annual average has been decreasing by 17-20%. In September 2019, the decrease was 20%. The monthly annual average is now around 2.0 m. It is not unlikely that the annual average will be down to 1.9 m. by the end of the year. WOW began to reduce its supply in September 2018 and it can therefore be expected that from October 2019 the relative decline in the average will slow, not least with regard to Americans.
The picture on the left shows this better. According to Arev, the 12-month average will fall before the New Year, but then start to rise again. The average will fall to 1.9 million by the end of the year, and the total number of tourists for 2019 will be around or over 1.9 million. Arev then set up two other scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario (the green line), the 12-month average number of tourists in 2019 will fall to just over 2.0 million and will start to grow again. According to the pessimistic scenario (the yellow line), the 12-month average number of tourists will fall to just over 1.8 million before it starts to grow again.