The monthly annual average number of tourists is now around 2.3 m people. The forecast assumes that the average will reach 2.0 million people before the number of tourists starts to increase again.
The right axis of the figure to the side shows that until the middle of 2017, the monthly annual average continued to increase proportionally. Since 2017, this has turned around a lot and the situation is now such that the monthly annual average has been decreasing by 17-20%. The monthly annual average is now around 2.3 m. man. Considering the fall of WOW and the reduction of other flight offers, it is likely that the average will fall further this summer. WOW started to significantly reduce its supply recently. September and it can therefore be expected that from September 2019 the 12-month average will finally stop falling.
The picture on the side shows this better. According to Arev, the 12-month average will decrease until the end of the year, but then start to rise again. The total will fall to 2.0 million people at the end of the year and the total number of tourists in 2019 will be around or over 2.0 million people. Arev then set up two other scenarios. According to in the optimistic scenario (green line), the 12-month average tourist numbers in 2019 will fall to 2.2 m and then reverse. According to in the pessimistic scenario (yellow line), the 12-month average tourist numbers will fall to 1.9 million people before starting to grow again.