Arev tourist forecast August 2019

The monthly annual average number of tourists is now around 2.2 m people. The forecast assumes that the average will reach 2.0 million people before the number of tourists starts to increase again.

The right axis of the figure to the side shows that until the middle of 2017, the monthly annual average continued to increase proportionally. In 2017, this started to turn around and the situation is now such that the monthly annual average has been decreasing by 17-20%. In June and July 2019, the decrease amounted to 17%. The monthly annual average is now around 2.2 m. It is not unlikely that the annual average will reach 2.1 m. at the end of the year. WOW began to significantly reduce its supply in September 2018, and it can therefore be expected that from September 2019, the relative decrease in the average will decrease significantly.

The picture on the side shows this better. According to Arev, the 12-month average will decrease until the end of the year, but then start to rise again. The total will fall to 2.0 million people at the end of the year and the total number of tourists in 2019 will be around or over 2.0 million people. Arev then set up two other scenarios. According to in the optimistic scenario (green line), the 12-month average number of tourists in 2019 will fall to just over 2.1 m. and start growing again. According to in the pessimistic scenario (yellow line), the 12-month average tourist numbers will fall to just over 1.9 million people before starting to grow again

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