Arev Tourist Forecast December 2019

The annual average number of tourists is now more than 2.1 m people. The forecast assumes that the average will increase to 2 million people in the middle of 2020 and to 1.9 m people a year later.

The right axis of the figure to the side shows that until the middle of 2017, the annual average continued to increase. In 2017, this turned around. In November 2019, 11.3% fewer tourists arrived than the previous year. At the same time, the annual average decreased by 1%. The average is now more than 2.1 m. Arev plans to bring it to about 2.0 m. in the middle of 2020 and 1.9 m a year later as the picture shows.

Arev then set up two other scenarios. According to the optimistic scenario (green line) the average will fall to just over 2 m. in the middle of 2021 and then start growing again. According to the pessimistic scenario (yellow line) the average will drop to just over 1.8 m. in mid-2021 before it starts growing again.

Finally, here is a picture on the side that shows the relationship between the real exchange rate and
tourist population. The yellow line shows the real exchange rate of the Icelandic króna and
the brown line number of tourists. A large increase in tourists
In recent years, the demand for production elements has greatly increased
such as labor and pushed up the real exchange rate.

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